Independent probability model
Fortnite Token Odds Calculator
Enter the chests you tracked to estimate the chance of at least one Pirate Shop Access token. The result is probability, not a prediction or guarantee.
What the percentage means
The calculator treats every chest as an independent attempt. A 10% cumulative chance means that, across many identical runs, roughly one in ten would contain at least one success by that point. It does not mean the next chest has a 10% chance, and a high total never makes a future drop “due.”
p is the effective chance per chest and n is the number of tracked chests.
Use current rates carefully
The default field is a planning preset of 1 in 137,500. Rates and temporary event boosts can change, so confirm the current number in Fortnite or an official Fortnite announcement before relying on a result. The multiplier field is a scenario control; it does not claim a boost is currently active.